Do Iran’s protesters have the power to overthrow the regime?

Since Iran’s 1979 revolution, women have had limited roles in government, while men have held the highest positions of power. Nonetheless, women have regularly challenged the regime and gradually won some rights. Since taking office in 2021, President Ebrahim Raisi’s government has been particularly misogynistic and is now struggling to quell anti-government protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish Iranian woman.

How much political power do Iranian women have?

Very little. Women have been parliamentarians, diplomats and cabinet-level ministers, but they are vastly outnumbered by male civil servants and have never reached Iran’s highest offices. Iran supreme leader must be male, and no woman has been admitted as a presidential candidate.

While senior women officials are typically conservative on gender issues, some have led successfully reforms in favor of women. Outspoken women risk being pushed out of government, although some ousted officials have maintained ties to the regime that help them continue to support women’s rights with less risk of backlash, says Mona Tajali, a fellow in women’s and Middle East studies at Agnes Scott College .

But Iran’s hardliners, including Raisi, have paralyzed reformists both inside and outside the regime, Tajali says. Hardliners won control of Parliament in a 2020 vote that saw record turnout. However, the number of female MPs remained at 17 out of 290 Replaced Conservatives most incumbents. Most Parliamentarians denounced the current protests.

Women also face significant inequality outside of government. she lost rights after the 1979 revolution, and Raisi’s government and its predecessors enacted laws further restricting their freedoms. They are barred from certain jobs, although increasingly they have been male-dominated roles in the last decades. Although women include 60 percent of university students was their unemployment rate twice that of men in 2021, and on average they earned less than half the wages of men in the same jobs, according to the US State Department.

Why is the regime concerned about the current protests?

have women protested regime ideology often in great danger since the beginning of the Islamic Republic: Iran is characterized by a high number of executions of both men and women, and many formerly imprisoned women report it sexually threatened or assaulted Detention. But women’s participation in the ongoing protests is surpassing that of previous riots, even in the 2009 Green Movement or the 2017 street protests, in which women also played a central role. Young women and girls are particularly prominent in the current demonstrations: the average age of those arrested at the protests are fifteen.

The protesters want to abandon Iran’s theocracy rather than reform it, and the women-focused demonstrations diminish the regime’s legitimacy. Chants of “Woman, Life, Freedom” and calls to end the compulsory hijab wear question the Islamist ideology on which the Iranian government is based. These protests have unusually broad support, regardless of class, ethnicity or gender.

Can foreign powers support the protesters?

Some Western countries have condemned Iran’s violent crackdown on the protests and imposed sanctions on officials involved in the crackdown. The United States is seeking Iran’s removal from the UN Commission on the Status of Women, while Germany and Iceland expect it request a probe informed of Iran’s human rights abuses during a special session of the UN Human Rights Council in November.

Many analysts say supportive governments can help protesters Bypass internet restrictions who limit their access to social media. Washington is currently trying to make it easier for tech companies to access the internet. Tajali stresses the importance of giving Iranians access to media platforms “so that they can speak for themselves”.

What’s next?

Many experts say the strict hijab policy is likely to remain in place as Iran’s hardliners fear compromises will lead to more concessions. The government has failed to acknowledge what is behind these protests, instead blaming interference from the West, Saudi Arabia and other countries exiled Kurdish groups in Iraq. She has already launched rocket attacks on Brookings Institution’s Suzanne Maloney, and they are likely to continue told The President’s Inbox podcast. Domestic crackdowns could also intensify, particularly in border regions with large ethnic minority populations such as Kurds and Baluchis. That could be in progresssays Tajali, as the government likely believes it can attack these areas with impunity.

However, the protests are showing signs of longevity. The regime doesn’t know how to deter protesters who aren’t afraid of it, Maloney says. Although the protests appear leaderless and disorganized, they can be refueled by mistreating every woman who disobeys hijab laws. “Security forces must make a decision to arrest and potentially abuse one of these women, sparking another round of protests, sparking another potential situation of martyrdom, lending a self-sustaining dynamic to even the gatherings and demonstrations,” Maloney says.

Experts agree that Iran is at a crossroads, but there is no consensus that the regime will fall. The 1979 revolution was the culmination of riots that grew more organized and violent over many months, and some analysts say these protests could do the same.